The Conference of the Parties COP29 is about to start in Baku, Azerbaijan, putting global geopolitical negotiations to fight climate change, energy security and global instability concerns on the table. This will be a key edition as the time for concrete actions is running out. Participating Countries have already been working on defining their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to fix national climate commitments to be validated within this years's edition, held from the 11th to the 22nd November 2024.
At the COP28 in Dubai, the consensus to keep global warming below 1,5°C strenghtened, involving United Arad Emirates. Thus, Financial stakeholders are asked to provide more effective tools to allow developing countries to take bolder initiatives.
Further developing the Fund to respond to Losses and Damages (FRLD) establishes in 2022 to foster globall climate financial mechanisms is a priority on the agenda as well as setting straightforward rules for both the adaptation funding and the carbon credit market. But the COP29 will also face new challenges as recently pointed out by Roberta Boscolo, Climate & Energy Leader at the World Meteorological Organization - WMO who attended the Stati Generali della Green Economy (General States of the Green Economy) by Fondazione sullo Sviluppo Sostenibile, within Ecomondo 2024, the reference event for Sustainability and Circular Economy hosted by Fiere di Rimini from the 5th to the 8th November 2024.
The Senior Official of WMO reaffirmed the urgency of achieving the Paris Agreement objectives, starting from the following assumptions:
each fraction of degree of temperature is important;
the 1.5°C limit is becoming increasingly difficult to meet;
climate ambitions must align with the 1.5°C target through rapid and fair transitions;
climate finance must provide the necessary economic support;
adaptation must be implemented locally;
business and the private sector (non-state actors) must make an active contribution.
The global average temperature reached unprecedented levels, in between 1,2 °C and 1,3° C, from 2014 to 2023 compared to pre-industrial era (1850 to 1900). Last year, in particular, was the hottest ever worldwide, recording +1,45 °C, one of the highest in industrial age. This year's data (from January to September 2024) confirm further growth reaching 1,5 °C up, for the first time since the introduction of global monitoring. This negative trend was also favoured by the presence of El Niño, a recurring natural event characterised by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific generating extreme weather.
Mitigation actions need therefore to be stepped up in this critical decade. Exceeding 1.5°C at certain times of the year does not mean that the efforts made so far have been in vain because we can still overcome the risk in the long term (in the coming decades).
However, the frequency of destructive weather events has increased dangerously, as witnessed by recent floods in Italy and Spain, in contrast to severe droughts in other geographical areas such as Greece. And all this depends on the increase of even a fraction of degree. The constant increase in temperature limits could generate effects known as tipping points, that are climate points of change without possibility of returning to the initial conditions in a natural way. Notably, the breaking of major ocean currents, the melting of the Boreal permafrost or the collapse of major coral reef systems.
The urban infrastructures and the maintenance of agricultural land is often insufficient to address the violence of these phenomena, creating the conditions for human tragedies and biodiversity loss.
The steady rise in sea levels will remain a long-term challenge for new generations for many centuries before restoring natural balance. Roberta Boscolo stressed the crucial importance to minimise the temporary overrun of global temperature risk limits in order to prevent serious damage. In fact, CO2 emissions continue to rise and the carbon budget to limit global warming are expected to run out by 2030.
It is essential to put into force the climate mitigation policies (NDCs) provided that climate warming can no longer be limited under 1,5° C, even in the most favourable scenario. Ensuring credible transition paths, effective social inclusion programmes, clear financing mechanisms and feasible implementation tools is one of the most important message in view of the opening of COP29 in Baku. ***
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By Maurice Abbati
Journalist; Editor; Communication, Media and Public Relations Specialist
Lecturer and Author in English language of Technical Articles and the Manual: "Communicating the Environment to Save the Planet, a Journey into Eco-Communication" by Springer International Publishing.
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